ARLINGTON — As a parting gift before exiting the conference, the Texas Longhorns were picked to win the Big 12 in 2023 by a poll of the league’s media. Maybe it’s a case of a school being due.
Or maybe, with the Longhorns joining Oklahoma in the SEC next season, it’s more a feeling of now or never.
Few schools fail to live up to expectations quite like the modern-era Longhorns. Since their 2009 Big 12 Championship victory against Nebraska, Texas has gone 0-for-13 in winning the Big 12, but the story is much worse than that. Their overall record under four head coaches during those 13 seasons is 91-72 — basically an average of 7 wins, 5.5 losses per season.
They have finished anywhere from fifth to ninth as many times as they have finished second or third (five each). And in two years riding the “All Gas, No Brakes” promise of head coach Steve Sarkisian, the 13-12 Longhorns have delivered little beyond an NFL-ready Bijan Robinson prepared to dominate your fantasy league as a Falcons running back.
But when you outscored opponents by 13 points per game as Texas did even during an 8-5 season, and when you still have that “TEXAS” stenciled across your chest, something more than modest expectations emerge.
That’s in spite of the fact we know how this story has unfolded year after year for UT. In those 13 seasons since the last conference title, Texas has begun the season as a top-15 team in the AP poll six times. The ‘Horns have finished in the top 15 once, and that was in their only 10-win season (the “We’re baa-ack” 2018 campaign that ended with a Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia).
“It wouldn’t be fair for anyone to say they know what’s going to happen in the Big 12 this year,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said at the conference’s media day session at AT&T Stadium.
“It depends on what we’re basing this on — the last five years, the last 50 years. I don’t know how anyone can come up with a favorite.”
Nevertheless, Texas was picked, and Sarkisian acknowledged he wasn’t sure how the selection was made but is ready to see how it plays out.
“We’ve got a roster full of players who came to University of Texas to try to win a Big 12 championship. We’ve got one more opportunity to do that,” Sarkisian said.
For the most part, Texas has not come close. Only Tom Herman has made it to a Big 12 title game during this 13-year slide. But if Texas has failed to cover itself with glory on Saturdays, Sarkisian is at least winning big-time recruiting battles in the age of NIL. Suddenly being the school with the most money and the wealthiest boosters is a legal advantage.
While most Big 12 teams are searching for one five-star recruit at quarterback, Texas has a pair. But freshman Arch Manning’s name was never mentioned in Sarkisian’s 15-minute session with the media at large Wednesday, and Southlake Carroll‘s Quinn Ewers figures to maintain his role for a second season to secure his status as a first-round NFL pick next spring.
That’s not to say it all went smoothly for Ewers last season. Injured during a breakout performance against Alabama, he returned to lead a 49-0 destruction of Oklahoma, only to throw three interceptions in a 41-34 meltdown against Oklahoma State two weeks later.
”You look at what he did after Oklahoma State, and he took all the blame for that loss,” Sarkisian said. “What he has done since last season is pour himself into what he needs to do to be the best quarterback he can be for the University of Texas. We’ve seen his body composition change, we’ve seen him speak up in meetings. There’s not a throw he can’t make.”
In a league that has rarely been accused of playing much defense in recent years, Texas gave up the second fewest points behind Iowa State. With so many returning stars on both sides of the ball, the anticipation of Texas making one final statement in the Big 12 doesn’t seem so foolish, save for all the school’s recent disappointments.
”If you ask any of our players, they will tell you they want to be back here Dec. 2 to play for a Big 12 championship,” Sarkisian said. “That’s simple. We’ve got to do the necessary things day in and day out to make that happen.”
As the thermometer hit 104 degrees in the stadium parking lot Thursday afternoon, December felt like a long, long way off. A chill in the air seems more improbable right now than Sarkisian piloting a once proud football school to one final title before sailing off into the choppy waters of the SEC.
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